Last week, pursuant to Zarif’s rushed and surprise dash to the G7 summit, French president’s statements later, and the commentary from both Presidents Rouhani and Trump towards a meeting between the two, a large segment of Iranians, mostly living in Iran but also some abroad, breathed a sigh of relief at the prospect of a potential breakthrough in the current hopeless and painful standoff in the US-Iranian crisis.
Some of my acquaintance went as far as imagining direct Iran Air flights between Iran and US once the sanctions are lifted. This is of course stuff of fantasy but goes to show how desperate and hope deprived the common pool of Iranians are that a glimmer of hope of a breakthrough sends their imaginations soaring to unimaginable heights. Needless to say how over the past 40 years and specifically in the last few years, this standoff has devastatingly impacted many Iranians living inside Iran as well as abroad on so many levels.
The euphoria however only lasted for a few hours until comments from Rouhani put an end to all speculations.
If you take the emotion and partisanship out of the equation though, it’s hard to imagine any positive breakthrough until at least after the US election next year.
Here are a few reasons:
The perceived upper hand factor:The Regime somehow thinks it has gained the upper hand or at least has nothing more to lose. The economy’s downward spiral is somehow stalled. There’s no consequential public discourse. There’s no impactful and mob-inspiring opposition. And the latest drone downing escapades, tanker cold war, and other episodes, have raised their confidence that a serious military threat is, at least imminently, not an option. People may have several reasons to the contrary and the oil sanctions will finally take their toll, but this, at least for now, seems to be their state of mind.
An existential threat:One of the most common negative Iranian character traits is not being able to get over a grudge. We sanctify grudges and make it extremely personal and emotional to the point that fighting and maintaining it becomes an existential threat long after the initial animosities behind the conflict die away. We simply do not know how to resolve a conflict without paying a significant and unnecessary personal cost. Take the revolution for example. Folks, right or wrong, had a grudge against the Imperial regime. They went as far as turning what was a developing nation into ruins. Take Iran-Iraq war. Yet another example of devastating toll we paid for an 8-year war that could have been wrapped up somewhat in our favor in the second or third year were the initial Iraqi advances were pushed back. The situation with US has become a similar impasse for the regime. It has been let to grow into something that resolving it will face the regime with a tremendous existential threat that they will have to do something exceptional to survive. In my opinion, they will drag this to a point that the entire country and the nation will face an apocalyptic faith, and then at that last point they will concede and spin themselves as selfless heroes to survive the aftermath. At that point, general Iranian public will just be happy that it’s over and no one will have the energy or motive to ask them the difficult questions. Not at least for a decade or so.
Rightly and wrongly (and there are arguments for both), I believe the regime is banking on president Trump not to get reelected. In such event, it is likely that the pursuant administration will be headed by a left leaning president such as Sanders or Warren and they think in due course, they can potentially get a much better deal than negotiating with Trump.
What could change it all?
There are two gigantic elephants in the room. One is when and how the oil sanctions will take their toll and more importantly how the general Iranian public will react. A massive internal unrest will be a game-changer forcing the regime to bite the bullet or pack the bags.
The second is Trump reelection. In such event, four more years of the same will become more of an existential threat that having to shake hands with the great Satan and will probably lead into an entente.
Whatever the case, I personally hope for a resolution that will have the best results for the people of Iran. They have needlessly suffered enough.
Here is the prospect:
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran will not talk to the United States until all sanctions imposed on Tehran are lifted, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday, a day after President Donald Trump said he would meet his Iranian counterpart to try to end a nuclear standoff.
Sanctions have had no impact whatsoever on Iranians. Just look at Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif. They’re getting chubbier by the day.
Dear Aria
Who did you copy and paste this from?
I hope not from Khandani ha team. Because they copy and paste their own stuff from some felestini dude doing an online masters in islamic studies from online university of Jihad is fun!
Maybe former President Barak Obama should throw a party at his new house and invite Trump and Rouhani to have their meeting there.
Carol Roth: Barack and Michelle Obama's $15 million house of hypocrisy
Former President Obama and the former first lady have reportedly made a bid of approximately $15 million on a home in Martha’s Vineyard. The 7,000 square-foot house comes with 29 acres and would likely be a summer home. The family is known to have spent quite a bit of time on the island over past summers.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/carol-roth-barack-michelle-obama-15-million-house
I thought the Obamas were concerned about the global warming and the rising sea levels!? Why in the world are they buying a $15M house in Martha's Vineyard? Last time I was there I had to take ferry to get there because it's an effing island off the coast Massachusetts!?!? Where are our more catholic than the poop global warming alarmist sar dabir and his minions the embrace 729 tranny and oil tanker malijack to object to such hypocrisy of the Obamas!?
And one more thing, where did these two clowns manage to get $15M ?
I’m not sure about Michelelle, but, years ago I read Obama had money. I heard two figures, 5 and 15 million dollars. Perhaps, through selling his book and inheritance. Also, he got between thirty and sixty million dollars to write books, when he left the White House. Obama receives more than $400,000 per speech. Bill Clinton, by the way, receives $700,000
Last but not least, it is payback time now and though the Obamas are not making as much as the Clintons, I have heard they are raking it. I saw a documentary about Michelle in which the narrator said Michelle was making more than Obama. She is on TV a lot.
I personally hope that the sanction on Iran's oil continues and get tighter with the hopes that Iranian people one day come to the realization that they need to lift their a$$ off the chair and go to work, a productive work not just clock-in.
The “Democratic Imperial” kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela are good examples of countries who live off the oil and always slave to the Western nations + China and in turn the people of those nations are slave to their regimes for hand out. Let's hope and wish better future for the Iranian people.
I also beg to differ somewhat on the notion of inability to get over a grudge. One would need to get over a grudge if the cause of the grudge has been resolved. In case of Iran-Iraq war, the two countries are having the friendliest relationship perhaps in their history, this is despite the 8 year bloody war.
In case of the US the root source of grudge, domination of Iran, has not been resolved.
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
According to the writer's prediction, there are 2 elephants in the room.
1. Social turmoil, Iranians uprising as a resutl of sanction.
2. shahking hands between criminal mullahs and Great satan America.
Highly unlikely any of these 2 scenarion takes place.
We don't see any sign of strikes, demonstrations,.. or social unrest so far... and it seems the situation continues regardless ofTrump takes the office for 2nd term or he doesn't. Syria war is an example. even though thosands of people got the guns in their hands and fight with Assad, Assad is still in charge. Unlike Syrians, Iranians are silent these days. it seems they will stay silent. On the other hand, Mullahs will never sit and shake hands with great satan. Their fight against modern world continues. How did they manage to survive for last 40 years ? most likely they wil continue to survive for a long time at the expenses of Iranians' suffering. Some days, Mullahs used to kill Imam Hussain to make a few bucks, now they are sitting on peackock throne. They won't give it up that easily.