Bloomberg:

The U.S. struck yet another blow against Iran on April 22 when the White House announced it would end all sanctions exemptions for countries that import Iranian crude oil.

“We’re going to zero,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said during a press conference on the policy change. Any nation that continues to buy oil from Iran, he said, will face its own sanctions. “We’ve made our demands very clear to the ayatollah and his cronies,” he said. “End your pursuit of nuclear weapons, stop testing and proliferating ballistic missiles, stop sponsoring and committing terrorism.”

The statements, coming almost a year after President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the multinational nuclear accord with Iran reached in 2015, followed closely on the heels of an April 8 decision to label Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization—the first time the U.S. had given that designation to a government entity. Trump said the decision would “significantly expand the scope and scale” of the administration’s campaign to weaken what it sees as one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security in the Middle East.

While Trump’s predecessor, President Barack Obama, wanted to persuade Iran to change its policies by strengthening its links with the rest of the world, Trump’s administration has followed the opposite tack, betting that economic isolation will force Iran to abandon ballistic missile development and change other behavior the president has called unacceptable.

But the new policy isn’t working. Iran still provides Hezbollah with an estimated $700 million a year in funding and bolsters its military capabilities, furnishes financial and military aid to the Shiite Houthi rebels fighting the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, and helps Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his country’s civil war. And despite assertions by U.S. officials in March that the sanctions against Iran’s banking, energy, shipping, and aviation sectors were having their desired effect, Hezbollah is still the strongest force in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen regularly attack Saudi troops on the border, and the Assad regime is consolidating power.

“Iran is feeling a financial pinch, but there is no evidence the pinch has affected Tehran’s ability or willingness to act as it does in the Middle East,” says Paul Pillar, a former CIA officer who’s now a professor at Georgetown University. “Iran does what it does in the Middle East not according to how much money it has, but instead according to what it sees as in its own security interests.”

Relations with Shiite groups have become “one of the pillars” of Iran’s regional policy, says Raffaelle Mauriello, a postdoctoral research fellow in world studies at the University of Tehran, and Iran is unlikely to give that up. Instead, the government is “trying to be resilient and wait for the storm to pass—and the storm is Trump,” he says. “They are waiting for the next elections in the U.S.”

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