Bloomberg:

The latest protests in Iran may be largely crushed for now, but the characteristics of this particular uprising suggest that, unlike the so-called Green Revolution of 2009 and other previous waves -- the unrest could continue sporadically for years to come.

Although the rioters -- largely workers and farmers from rural and religiously conservative villages and towns -- were not part of a unified or organized movement, they do have shared grievances that fueled the outrage, and this could be a game changer. Unlike past uprisings in Iran when demonstrators’ outcries concerned lofty goals, such as democracy and free elections, these protesters’ complaints are practical and urgent, because their lives are far more difficult than those of Iranians in major cities.

For example, the unemployment rate in Tehran –-historically the center of political protest until now – is 13 percent, according to Iran’s Interior Ministry. But in rural areas such as Bashagard and Hormazgan provinces the rate is above 45 percent, and in some cities it is reportedly up to 60 percent. In the fiscal year that ended in March 2017, the government said it had created 650,000 jobs, but 1.5 million new jobs were needed to decrease unemployment.

So what is next? It is important to understand that movements similar to the present one in Iran may rise and fall, but they rarely die completely if the grievances have not been addressed. Under Iran’s 2017-2022  development plan, the country would need $200 billion in annual investment to create the 1.5 million jobs needed to avoid an increase in unemployment. Given Iran’s enormous military spending in the Middle East, this level of investment is highly unlikely to be spent for domestic purposes.

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