Cartoon by Ahmad Rasmi

Iran after the protests: What comes next?

Dina Esfandiary is a Fellow in the War Studies Department at King’s College London, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

The Washington Post: The recent spate of protests in Iran has ebbed — at least for the moment. The unrest caught the regime off guard. Initially it responded in the usual manner: by blaming foreigners and discrediting protesters. But in a pragmatic move, the leadership then acknowledged the protesters’ demands. This is new and significant because it signals a willingness to open up in order to stay in power. But doing too little or too much will jeopardize the system.

The protests began over economic hardship, and rapidly spread to more than 80 cities, leading to 1000 arrests and more than 20 deaths. Protests are not new in Iran, with sit-ins and peaceful protests a regular feature, especially since President Hassan Rouhani took office. But these were widespread — they began outside the capital in the conservative city of Mashhad — and communicated bolder slogans, some of which targeted the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, himself. They also caught the government off guard.

During his election bid, Rouhani outlined an ambitious plan to boost the country’s economy. As part of this, he negotiated the nuclear deal, which was supposed to pull Iran out of isolation, and put in place a team of experienced technocrats to carry out his economic agenda.

In practice, though, it turned out to be a bit more complicated.

First, Rouhani’s bargain with the people and the leadership was to focus on the economy and the nuclear deal at the expense of other domestic issues, such as political and social freedoms. Secondly, as part of selling the deal and ensuring his reelection, his administration raised expectations. They touted the return of foreign business to Iran and the potential for growth. But average Iranians didn’t feel any benefits. Instead, they faced growing inflation and unemployment, experienced growing restrictions on their freedoms and witnessed truckloads of Iranian money being spent outside the country.

Today, the administration is paying the price.

But Iran is pragmatic and survival is its driving principle. When its existence is threatened, the regime adapts. What the government’s response to the protests shows is that they now think they didn’t get that deal quite right.

After initially blaming foreigners and seditionists for instigating the protests, the system changed course. Certain clerics, members of the judiciary and officials began to sympathize with the protesters >>>