The much-anticipated exit by Trump from the Iran Nuclear Deal, JCPOA came yesterday with Trump signing an Executive Order withdrawing from the Deal. John Bolton and the Treasury Department provided additional details outlining a quick return of Obama sanctions. The reaction was overwhelmingly negative in Europe, China and Russia. But I believe that we are blessed to witness how 2 successive US Presidents can go about negotiating with an adversary and have the opportunity to judge which one secured a better deal.
One can anticipate that this time around, the Regime will not wait for months to see the effects of the crippling sanctions. Velayati has already booked his flight to meet with Pompeo in Oman to discuss the negotiations. And given the state of affairs between Trump, EU, China and Russia, there’s no need for the UN Security Council, P5+1 or Mogherini. We can skip all of that and go directly to the negotiating table. Since Trump considers himself the best negotiator ever, we can just send Zarif to Mar-e-Lago for an intense weekend of negotiating. There’s no need for Zarif and Pompeo to take long strides along Lake Geneva and get to know each other. Just a few rounds of golf with Trump should be sufficient.
The new deal can be wrapped up this summer after the North Korean deal. Trump will be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize; And BiBi will get to address the Joint Session of the Congress again. This time he will praise how a US President saved his people from a Persian Ayatollah!
With Bolton in the White House, I wonder if Madam President Rajavi, the leader of the only Iranian Democratic group will get an official visit or even a post in the White House.
tRump certainly deserve the Nobel Piss Prize,
Meanwhile there is no one breathing on the back of Netanya-WHO while he goes on killing spree of Palestinian youth, armed with chanting free Palestine
Muller is making America great again
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Sounds like a good idea, Mar-e-lago is great place. I would suggest a round table for three people: Trump, his boss Bibi and Zarif. It should not take more than one weekend.
I would invite Stormy to Mar-e-Lago to add more spice to the meeting. Maybe Rudy too, to report back to Fox and Friends!
"Trump, his boss Bibi and Zarif."
Poor bastard, doesn’t know if he needs to take order from BiBi, Vladimir and now Stormy is trying to put a leash on him as well.
True sense of the expression
یه کس کردوم دو کون دادوم جریمه
سزای کس کنه ناشی همینه
Muller is making America great again
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Well if you want to make the meeting that busy I would also bring Maryam Rajavi and our former prince RP too. They can seat on the corner and take notes. I was trying to make it more "Khodemony" sort of speak.
Iran is screwed either way. It was screwed 40 years ago when the Devolution happened. The IR will not go peacefully, with or without a nuke deal. It is, and has always been, a belligerent revolutionary entity that is united in its anti-West ideolgy with its communist-turned West residing "college professor," TV pundits who have been advocating its revolutionary ideology in the form of "independence" for the past 40 years around the world. At the end of the day, regardless of whether Trump of anyone else is in charge in the U.S., the end of the IR will be a very bloody and violent one, and one that will cause the break up of Iran. Look at it this way: Iran has not been under sanctions for the past 40 years because there's a vast Zionist / Saudi / American / Illuminati / Goerge Soros / Neocon conspiracy against it. It has been isolated and despised because from day one that the IR came to power it started to conspire against other nations, promised to wipe this country and that country off the map, took hostages, funded terrorism, engaged in terrorism, and caused trouble all around the world. You reap what you sow. Japan was nuked by the U.S., Vietname lost 6 million people to the U.S.. Neither one of them took American diplomats hostage, and neither one ever showed the level of hatred and hostility toward the U.S. that Iran has shown for the past 40 years. Japan is one of the biggest U.S. allies, and Vietnam is one its largest trade partners today.
The amusing thing about what Trump did yesterday is that on the one hand he advocated a regime-change by the Iranian people, which I fully support, but on the other hand, he is pushing for a new Nuclear Deal through imposing harsh sanctions.
In other words, he is saying that he wants to negotiate with the regime while he wants to change the regime. I don't think that it's going to work.
"a regime-change by the Iranian people" is supported by vast majority of Iranians inside and outside of Iran, I fully support that as well.
An imposed regime change by foreign powers with the track record of Iraq, Libya and many many other nations around the world has not worked for the people of those nations.
Needless to say, an independent dissident and force for a change but one that does not take order from Washington has never received any support from Washington.
As far as tRump goes, he speaks from both side of his mouth all the time so anyone to listen to what he has to say, in my opinion, is only a fool.
Muller is making America great again
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
I too fully support a hypothetical regime change by the Iranian people as long as there are no sanctions against the IRI and business as usual continues with it and no foreign powers are involved in any way (other than continuing to do business and not imposing any sanctions -- that kind of involvement is okay). Hell, I think the NIAC regime lobby members and Seyyed Ali Khamenei fully support that kind of regime change as well (LOL).
The whole "peaceful regime-change" by the Iranian people is being advocated by Trump/Pompeo/Bolton, etc. Actually NIAC is for reform and not change. That's why they are close to Zarif and Rouhani.
Wait, I thought NIAC advocated on behalf of Iranian-Americans. You mean they're actually a lobby for the late Rafsanjani/Khatami/Rouhani liberal-moderate-pragmatist-reformist followers of "Khatt-e Emam"? Who knew?!?!
I've been saying for a long time that Iran is screwed whether Donald Trump or Donal Duck is in power here.
Sad thing is that Iran (more or less) held on to her identity for 14 centuries after the Arab invasion only to be undermined not by obvious aliens, but those who are supposedly born and bred there. These cockroaches and their paid goons will make Syria look like a vacation spot before they take the loot they've accumulated in the past 40 years and move to Canada and elsewhere!
Here is simple question: Every one wants regime change and that is fine with me but can some one tell us who and what kind of a regime will take over? and why would it be any better than this one? Please spare me the usual stuff like deomcratic forces ,secularism and all the stuff you learned in political science 101 course. Give us something with meat and substance.
Plenty of countries have managed to change from less democratic regimes to more democratic regimes. It could either be a monarchy (e.g. Spain) or a republic (e.g. Tunisia, South Africa, Burma, etc). It could be similar to Thailand, for example, where there is a largely "non-political" monarchy that is respected and a focus of unity, but not involved in day-to-day governance -- "it reigns, but it doesn't rule".
Or just maybe, the IRI is the very best regime ever? Who knows?!?! (lol).
"Here is simple question"
For a regim change in Iran, the only realistic and plausible regime is one that will be willing to be subservient to the West, the US mainly and of course friendly towards Israel by at least turning a blind eye to its occupation.
To expect that any other form of regime would be allowed to take and hold power in Iran is foolish and to ignore past 40-50 years of history, especially the last 20 years. The US does not give a hoot for democracy in other third world country if it does not serve its interest. Look at Saudi Arabia and pretty much ALL other Arab nations in ME, they are a model for anti-democratic, backward and repulsive regimes yet they enjoy full support of the US despite the fact that they were so involved on so much terrorism against the US including 9/11.
Now look at the nations that had elected leaders democratically, Venezuela, Egypt, Lebanon… yet US actively rejected and undermined those regime.
It also seem to be foolish for nations that they have Nukes to give those up. Look at Libya and Gadhafi, look at the nuclear agreement with Iran, US cannot be simply trusted.
Muller is making America great again
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Only if Ronald Reagan was succeeded by Trump...Pffft...
Trump will be meeting the North Korean leader in Singapore.
Under the Shah, the US had good relations with most of the world, including the US and Israel. In 1979, Iran had a larger economy than South Korea! Now, compare the 2 countries: South Korea is a US ally and one of the world's leading industrial democracies, and Iran is a backwards Third World country. It has nothing to do with "trusting" or not "trusting" the US or any other country or being "subservient" (think of what asinine, childish concepts these are anyway). It's a question of the leaders and people pursuing wise decisions and policies. Instead, their "models" are Lebanese Hezbollah, the Musllim Brothers of Egypt and the failing, miserable state of Venezuela, which apparently are"democracies" (LOL). If these morons could do it all over again, they would do the same exact thing; they would bring Khomeini to power again, and then they would scratch their heads and wonder how we got here and say it's because we refuse to bow down to the US and we refuse to accept "occupation", blah, blah, blah. Is there any doubt that these morons support the regime and that they will NEVER in 1,000 years learn a single thing.
Under the Shah, as a student, I was able to get student visas for two guys who called my name when they saw me walk out of the US consulate in Shiraz and asked me to help them get their visas. The father of one of them was my teacher in high school. There were thousands of applicants outside the consulate.
Yeah, I meant Iran had good relations. That was a typo.
Amir1973
No one is arguing on behalf of IRI, but simple question is who and what is going to replace this regime? (not so much the form republic verses monarchy). You are right a lot of countries went through regime changes in our life time, especially in Mideast and in nine out of ten cases the results have been catastrophic. In 1980’s I could name a lot of people who could steer the country in the right direction, today I can’t can you? I know what you are thinking how can it get worse than IRI? Believe it or not it can!!
Bavafa1
There is no question the kind of regime U.S wants in Iran is a docile, weak, decentralized (so phony ethnic tensions can be introduced) , stay within the border of Iran, pomp the oil and gas out , and in return you get our junk or more like Chinese junk through our subsidies. No nukes, no missiles, no space programs, nothing fancy or modern technology, you pomp the oil and city bank will build you a tower or Sheldon Addison will build you the casino! Now as bad as this regime is domestically, facts are they did manage to push to Taliban out from Northern Afghanistan, push Isis out of Mosel and northern Iraq, brought degree of peace and stability to to Iraq, helped crushing ISIS in Syria. If they simply followed what U.S wanted we would be fighting ISIS and Taliban in the middle of Tehran or Shiraz, you can bank on it!
I stop in here or else I will be accused of being IRI supporter or Anti Semite or both!!!!
No one is arguing on behalf of IRI. Really?! Why not? Look at all the wonderful things they have achieved: peace, stability, unity, independence. If it weren't for Khomeini and Khamenei, the Jooooooooooo Sheldon Adelson, ISIS and the Taleban would be ruling Iran this very minute. Think of the alternatives and then thank God for the Islamic Republic.
Look at Taiwan and South Korea (even Malaysia, a Muslim country, by comparison) -- I guess in those cases the US "let them" not be "docile, weak, blah, blah, blah". Here we have men in their 50s and 60s (or older, who knows?!) who have even less common sense than a 17 year-old child spray painting "Marg Bar Shah" and "Marg Bar Amrika" graffiti on the walls. And we keep scratching our heads and wondering "how did we get here"? It's official -- Iranians are the world's biggest morons, and we see at least a couple excellent examples right here (LOL)
MRX - Can we please lay off this whole stale, Third World "they want our oil and gas" argument? Those arguments are from the 1970's when the U.S. was reliant on Mid East oil. By 2019 the United States will be the biggest EXPORTER of oil. It's the shale oil boom. Same thing with natural gas. The U.S. imports very little oil, and a tiny of fraction of that is from the ME, which can be easily provided by Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states. So, the U.S. doesn't need Iran's shitty oil. They can keep it or sell it to the Chinese. There are other arguments that can be made about U.S. and IR having competing interests in the region, but the whole "they're here to take our money" (and possibly our women) is not one of them.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-iea/u-s-to-overtake-russia-as-top-oil-producer-by-2019-at-latest-iea-idUSKCN1GB0C6
Iranians really need to stop thinking like a Third World country if they don't want to be perceived as one. You know, I was watching a video of Conan O'Brien visiting a poor school in Haiti. At the end of the video one of the girls says "the U.S. doesn't care about us, it's just here to take our wealth." Haiti....f**king Haiti...what wealth does Haiti have for the U.S. to take?!!! But that's the Third World mentality. Blame evrything on everyone else, don't read, and just cry victim. Here's the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5YL_6lCov0
@MRX,
Well, for some any other regime is better than the current one and worth risking it, mind you no skin of theirs is in the game but the Iranian people. It is like arguing with a Birther and I am sitting this one out.
Muller is making America great again
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Dear AO, you are trying to use logic and facts with a couple people who lack any capacity for it. For f*ck's sake, their models for "democracy" are Morsi in Egypt, Nasrallah in Lebanon, and Venezuela, a country which has the world's largest proven petroleum reserves and yet suffers shortages of basic food items and toliet paper (and naturally, it's the fault of the Joooo Adelson, blah, blah, blah). These are the same gaavs who think the IRI is the best regime that is possible and engage in sineh-zani 24/7 about the "occupation" of a few miles of a worthless patch of rocks and sand called Holy Palestine (LOL)!
AI, no, no. Iranians are not to blame for the state of affairs in Iran. Sheldon Adelson is.
Dear AI & Amir - I blame this on a combination of factors, the most imoprtant of which, in my opinion, is that most of the political discourse about Iran is still controlled and dominated by the old, communist, 1960's and 70's revolutionaries. They have rebranded their arguments and are presenting them in the form of anti-war, etc. these days. But it's the same old nonsense: that if you have good relations with the rest of the world, you're a slave of the imperialists. You have to be in a constant battle against the capitalists, blah, blah, blah...Essentially, if you don't attack a blond haired person like a rabid animal upon coming in contact with him/her, you're traitor and a slave----unless that blond person happens to be Russian. In that case, you will get on your knees, and well, you can imagine the rest....
And don't forget the Jooooooooz aka Adelson aka Netanyahu aka AIPAC aka ZioNazis.
Of course. Well that comes as part of a lethal combination of Islamist anti-Semitic ideology couple with the Eastern European anti-Semitism that was incorporated into the Soviet communist doctrine that these guys subscribed to.
I really asked a very simple question to which I still don't have an answer! I asked who is going to run the show? and what makes you think its going to be any better? I did not get any answer , not even one name!
just personal attack or false assumption on a character of the messenger.(Must be an Iranian trait). examples of Taiwan, Spain , Malaysia , Egypt ,etc their strenght or their short comings, has no bearing on Iran . We can not change the population of Iran overnight to some secular atheist, genius with Japanese work ethics. We have what we have, guvv or not that is what you got to work with, and that’s the limitation!
May be this is not the best example : there is a house that we all live in that has ton of problems, what you guys are advocating is total destruction of the house with out so much as thinking about the consequence after (Exactly like 1979 Fiasco in Iran) and all I am asking if you destroy the house where are you going to reside until this house is built and who is going to build it, its that simple folks!
Got to head back to work, you guys can continue with insults and personal attacks I won't hold it against you! weekend is coming after all.
You want one name: okay, fine....Pahlavi as a symbol and a "figurehead" leader. But, I don't see any problem anyway: the IRI has achieved all sorts of positive things like unity, peace, stability, independence, security and it's the best possible regime. End of discussion.
Baba jaan, let's just say that the IRI should rule Iran for the next 1,000 years -- otherwise, Adelson, ISIS, and the Taleban will take over the country, like you said. Focus on your work and go have fun this weekend, dadash!
MRX- This whole notion of "if not us, then who" or "if we go they'll be chaos" is an old trick of despots and dictators. Don't fall for it. Remember, this is exactly what Assad said as he started mowing down his own people. The IR has been partcularly effective in eliminating virtually all credible opposition inside and outside of Iran. Its success on that front has mainly been the result of Iranians' character flaws, which is in and of itself a subject for another blog. But at the end, this success has left it in a position of claiming that there's no viable alternative to it. The IR then adds the narrative that if you force us to leave, Iran will be another Syria--a claim which I believe. But none of that should be an obstacle to a serious effort to remove the IR. Leaders will naturally emerge when and if IR's demise becomes inevitable. The fear of lack of leadership shouldn't stop us from trying. Trust me, once people realize that the IR is not as invincible as it portrays itself to be, lederas will muster the courage to emerge from the shadows.
The notion that the IRI is as good as Iran can get is an interesting one....I also hear this dishonest idea that 1979 was a fiasco because there was no one obvious, clear leader from the beginning — which is of course the opposite of the truth: Khomeini was the leader from the very first demonstrations. In fact, they started in January 1978 when his filthy followers falsely accused the Shah of assassinating his worthless son Mostafa.
My father always says that Mostafa Khomeini was a "shaid-e- shekam," and that he died of overeating. :-)
None of the shahids (Mostafa, Ali Shariati, Takhti, etc) were assassinated by the Shah. None of them.
I agree. But Iranians believed it. Just liked they believed it when there were claims that bags of "pulled nails" were found at various Savak offices. Question: if you're torturing people by removing their nails, why would you keep the nails?!!! But that's too much logic for the Iranian psyche.
They claimed Taleghani had his eyelids removed so that he could not close his eyes while his daughter was raped in front of him!
And there was that whole Khomeini's image on the moon thing....backwards people.
This blog started with Trump and Zarif, but as usual ended with Shah and mullahs... Why can't we, or at least some of us forget His Majesty?... Maybe because he was so good... or, maybe simply because mullahs are so bad... it can't be because of the combination of the two...
MRX says:
“In 1980’s I could name a lot of people who could steer the country in the right direction, today I can’t can you?”
“We can not change the population of Iran overnight to some secular atheist, genius with Japanese work ethics. We have what we have, guvv or not that is what you got to work with, and that’s the limitation!”
MRX:
Did you look hard enough? You seem to underestimate people’s power.
If the idea is that Iranians do not understand what they want, then why do you think tens of thousands of young Iranians want to go to colleges abroad, annually? Yours is a mistaken elitist view of the situation in the country. It is amusing that even though you are residing outside of Iran you feel the need to hide behind an avatar. But then you expect Iranians inside the country to rise and change the regime.
You don’t need to “change the population of Iran overnight.” In general, Iranians are neither lazy nor are they dumb. They are not violent, either. In the past four decades, millions of Iranians in diaspora have proven that. Have you ever thought why so many Iranians are successful in the US and Canada? There’s a simple explanation for that. They have been given ample opportunities to succeed. And they haven proven to be worthy of the opportunities afforded to them. Such Iranians did not immigrate to the US as constitutional experts. Most of them did not have the slightest idea what the US was like until they started living there. And when they found out what their host country was about, they decided they didn’t want to be “left behind.” And they will not change what they have now for anything in this world.
Why aren’t Iranians (as) successful in Japan, you may want to know. Note that I’m not even saying in Iran. The answer to this question is also very simple. It is merely due to the prevalent xenophobia in this country. The Japanese politicians and corporate leaders would rather see this “ship sink” than allow the integration of non-Japanese into this country’s workforce.
I have no clue what you mean by “work ethic.” As things are “work ethic” is merely a euphemism for the exploitation of man by man. So, the Japanese “work ethic,” for that matter, is a huge myth that was concocted by the employers and propagated by the strictly controlled mass media to encourage absolute subservience by the employees. After the Second World War, Japan’s corporate leaders were determined to bank on the militaristic past of the country and transfer the remnants of that culture into the midst of their corporations.
Years back, while talking to a researcher at one of the best-known medical centers in Japan, I asked him about the work situation at his institution. He told me horrific stories about break-ins, theft or destruction of properties by the researchers. When I told him I had never heard anything about such incidents. He said, they were simply not reported. And he added, they could not get the police involved, because they could not afford scandals at their institution.
Working Japanese millennials would laugh at the expression “work ethic.” They don’t drink, they don’t drive and they don’t necessarily like their jobs.
Almost three decades ago, I used to live in a quiet neighborhood. There was a semi-private street right behind our place. Every afternoon there were between 15 to 20 cars parked there with their engines running and the guys behind the wheels sound asleep. The cars mostly belonged to various companies.
Once, a group of college students were talking about why they wanted to become elementary-school teachers at public schools. They had three reasons. 1. Better pensions. 2. Longer vacations. 3. They did not think they could do any other jobs.
Under the Shah, two major institutions in Iran stood out. One was Iran’s military and the other was NIOC. During that era, Iran enjoyed one of the strongest military forces in the world. And we all know how “perfectly” the NIOC was managed by Iranians.
In the 80s tens of thousands of Iranians came to Japan to work. On few occasions I talked to some of the owners of the companies where the Iranians worked. They had nothing but good things to say about their Iranian employees and their “work ethic.”
As long as there is no “pay ethic,” the expression “work ethic” remains a nonsensical metaphor. It’s been years now since many Japanese corporate employees saw any pay raises.
https://mobile.twitter.com/theeconomist/status/981710929766354945?lang=en
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/07/health/japan-child-population-record-low-intl/index.html
Dear AO: Great insights as always. Are you on twitter??? If not you should be.
The character of islamic regime has finally become its destiny.
You guys go on and on and are all over the place! Again I said I agree IRI is bad , I want IRI gone, in fact I wanted it gone in 1979! however shia has happened and we can't use the time machine (Michale J fox was not available) to go back and fix it.
if we can not even name one person out of 80 Million that is committed, capable , couragous, fearless and have a great vision for post IRI , then we have to admit we have serious problem! No wonder neocons are in bed with MKO now. No wonder the opposition is not going any where and it will not go any where.
Bullsh*t. I named Pahlavi as a figurehead or symbol, and I also named other countries as examples (of course, no situation is precisely identical to another).
Baba jaan, let's just focus on the really important things, like how Adelson is going to introduce slavery into Iran and make Iranians build his next casino in Najafabad for free.
Well I guess Amir, somehow you missed a tiny problem and that is Reza Pahlavi (aka shahrvand) has said many times he has no desire to be a king, or a president , no aspiration for power or leadership. (These are his own words not mine!) so he is not going any where excpet may be into retirement shortly.
Those countries that you gave the example are fine, but how do we copy that in Iran? or more importantly who is going to do that? once again some one needs to take a lead or become a project manager per say and my list is empty i was hoping you guys have some idea but that does not seem to be the case.
That's the problem with our opposition (Or lack of it for that matter),there is no leadership, no ideas, no vision, no dedication , no hard work , just an anger and that explains why we are where we are.
End of this blog but I am taking a bet if this site survives another five years and we revisit it, chances are high the regime is still in power and we are all jiving none sense!!!!
At last, you said something useful: "and we are all jiving none sense!!!!" (LOL).
MRX writes:
“if we can not even name one person out of 80 Million that is committed, capable , couragous, fearless and have a great vision for post IRI , then we have to admit we have serious problem!”
The only problem I see here is you being picky in wanting heroes and organizations of your own choice. You can’t have your “chelo kebob” and eat it too. You need a system to run an organization. Individuals come and go. Look at the US. where even a “C student” becomes president.
Thanks dear Firedup for the vote of confidence! To answer your question, I try to stay away from social media. I really don't have the time for it. Between my job, my outdoor activities (which I have a lot of), and my reading list, I just don't have the time. I come on this site every 3-4 days. I have so many blog ideas which I can't get to because I really don't have the time.